Emission Targets for 2030 are Slowly Slipping Out of Reach
Photo Credit: Jason Franson via Bloomberg
On Sept. 11, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced new projects that will be referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO). These projects include LNG Canada Phase 2, the Darlington New Nuclear Phase Project, the Contrecœur Terminal Container Project, the McIlvenna Bay Foran Copper Mine Project, and the Red Chris Mine expansion, leaving many Canadians concerned that Canada will not reach climate change targets.
In 2015, then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that as part of Canada’s commitment to the Paris Agreement, its emissions would be 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. According to an Independent Auditors report from the government in 2024, this target was later increased to 40-50 per cent below 2005 levels, which means producing only 419–457 megatons of carbon into the atmosphere per year, according to Environment Canada.
Canada is currently projected to emit around 652 megatons of carbon in 2026, requiring a dramatic plunge in emissions to meet minimum requirements in four years. However, adding an estimated 13 million tonnes of greenhouse gases and nuclear waste from the soon-to-be-built LNG project makes this goal nearly impossible to achieve, critics say.
Despite the environmental concerns surrounding Carney’s five announced energy projects, Carney says they will play a crucial role in increasing energy production and create thousands of permanent, well-paying jobs for Canadian workers.
“We [will] not only strengthen our independence, but our resilience, our security, and our community. We will build with Canadian steel, Canadian lumber, Canadian aluminum and support the futures of Canadian tradespeople and engineers,” Carney said in a press conference on Sept. 11.
He emphasized that these initiatives will foster a stronger Canada, with a plan to “protect our communities and our country and invest in the major projects that will build our economy.”
According to a press release from Carney, together these projects represent investments of more than $60 billion into the Canadian economy.
One of the most prominent projects is the LNG project based in Kitimat, BC. On Sept. 11, the Prime Minister's office announced that this project will double liquified natural gas (LNG) production rates, making it the second largest facility of its kind in the world. Although this will create many more job opportunities within the energy sector, scientists and environmental activists remain concerned about the environmental implications.
A small modular reactor (SMR), which is a compact and cost-effective nuclear reactor, will also be built in the existing Darlington nuclear plant in Darlington, Ontario. Upon its completion, Canada will become the first G7 nation to have an SMR. This advancement will add $500 million annually to Ontario’s nuclear supply chain. Once built, the first of four planned reactors will provide non-emitting power to over 300,000 homes. Additionally, it will sustain 3,700 jobs annually, and 18,000 during construction over the next 65 years.