Here’s where the Russo-Ukraine War Stands

Photo Credit: Ian Betley VIA Unsplash

In February 2022, just over two years ago, Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed it was a “special military operation” to demilitarize and “denazify” Ukraine, alleging that they have observed Nazi behaviors in the Ukrainian government.

On Dec. 22, 2023, Russia launched 122 rockets and 36 drones to the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Odessa and Kharkiv. CBC reports that at least 144 people were injured and 30 were killed. According to CBC, Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk wrote on his official Telegram channel that it was “the most massive aerial attack” since February 2022.

Ukraine attempted a summer counteroffensive in 2023, but failed to gain any significant ground over the roughly 1,000 kilometer long (620 mile) frontline. Current winter weather conditions have now made battling along the frontline essentially impossible. 

Prior to Ukraine’s counteroffensive attack, European nations and the US provided Ukraine with 100 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, several hundred armored personnel carriers and other fighting vehicles, and hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition. 

The war’s casualties over the past two years have been immense. The U.K. Ministry of Defence reported 24,000 wounded and 50,000 killed Russian troops. Additionally, there were 40,000 wounded and 20,000 killed Russian-backed Wagner mercenaries. In Ukraine, a civic group reported 24,500 deaths and 15,000 missing troops. 

According to CBC News, President Putin has stated that he believes Ukraine was purposefully sacrificing its troops to show to Western sponsors for more aid. The United Nations has reported that there are 10,000 killed civilians and more than six million refugees in Ukraine.

The Russia-Ukraine war has also led to food security and economic problems. According to NPR, the two countries are major exporters of wheat, cooking oil, petroleum and fertilizer to African countries. Grain exports also decreased by 29 per cent in the 2022–23 season, according to Reuters. Food shortages and increased prices occurred in Chad, Tunisia and Sri Lanka. Although Russia and Ukraine unblocked Black Sea ports, Ukrainian officials reported an increase of traffic volume there.

Reuters reported that there are still concerns about the ports. “Inspections of these vessels in the Bosporus are not held. All that makes it possible for Russia to use its commercial vessels for receiving military goods in order to continue the war against Ukraine,” Ukrainian officials stated.

The World Health Organization has reported there are 8 million Ukrainian refugees, categorized as “the largest movement of people in the European Region since the Second World War.” Many have been relocated to Poland and Germany, which has caused financial burdens on hospitals and schools there.

Photo Credit: Kyodo/AP VIA The Harvard Gazette

The UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated that the Russian-Ukraine war will last for another 2 to 3 years. In their report, they outlined that Moscow is currently sending armed forces near the frontlines to break the “stalemate” state of war, according to a Ukrainian general.

Additionally, the IISS stated that “Despite losing hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery pieces per month on average, Russia has been able to keep its active inventory numbers stable.”

According to an annual Military Balance report conducted by the IISS, Russia’s invasion led to an increase of 9 per cent in global defense spending in 2023, which totaled $2.2 trillion. It reported additional funding was “scrambling to rectify shortcomings from years of underinvestment.” It further stated the European Union will not succeed in providing 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by March 2024. 

Although NATO imposed economic sanctions on Russia, its economy remained stable, and they plan to increase military spending in 2024. “Russia has raised its official defense budget for 2024 more than 60 per cent year-on-year. Total military spending now represents one third of its national budget and will reach about 7.5 per cent of GDP, signaling the focus on its war effort,” said Bastian Giegerich, director general of the IISS.

“Western governments find themselves once again in a position where they must decide whether to furnish Kyiv with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow, rather than just enough arms not to lose,” said Giegerich.

Since Feb. 24, 2022, the United States Senate has sent $74.3 billion in financial aid to Ukraine. On Feb. 13, 2024, the Senate passed a foreign aid package for Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine. However, the bill has not yet reached the house floor. 

Rep. Mike Johnson, speaker of the House, opposed the financial aid package. “The Republican-led House will not be jammed or forced into passing a foreign aid bill,” Johnson said. 

President Joe Biden told House Republicans that “a minority of the most extreme voices in the House” should be forbidden to block the bill. He warned that without action from the United States, Putin “won’t limit himself just to Ukraine, and the costs for America and our allies and partners are going to rise.”   

According to CNN, the Senate’s vote was 70 to 29, with 22 Republicans, 46 Democrats and 2 Independents agreeing to pass the package. “History settles every account,” said Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate Minority Leader. “And today, on the value of American leadership and strength, history will record that the Senate did not blink.”

In a statement after the Senate vote, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, thanked “every US Senator who has supported continued assistance to Ukraine as we fight for freedom, democracy, and the values we all hold dear.” 

According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Russia “now believes it is winning.” Russia’s current objectives envision an invasion of Kyiv by 2026. Russia plans to continue sending armed forces to the frontlines, weakening Ukraine’s resources and manpower. Then, after gaining ground in new offensives, the Russian government can use their newly conquered territory to pressure Ukraine into concessions at the negotiation table. 

RUSI writes that current Russian surrender proposals “include Ukraine ceding the territory already under Russian control along with Kharkiv, and in some versions Odessa; agreeing not to join NATO; and maintaining a head of state approved by Russia.”

“The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine),” the report noted.