ANALYSIS | NDP Opens Door to Early Federal Election

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On Sept. 4, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh terminated their Supply-and-Confidence agreement with Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, which could potentially lead to an early federal election. This agreement was signed with the Liberals in 2022, and was set to last until June 2025. 

Singh announced the NDP’s decision to end the agreement through a campaign style video. According to the National Post, the Liberals had no knowledge of the decision until shortly before the video was released to the general public. An email was sent by the NDP to the prime minister less than an hour before the video arose, and soon after journalists and lobbyists got ahold of the news. 

In the video, Singh stated that the Liberal party is “too weak, too selfish, and too beholden to corporate interests to lead the fight for people.” He highlighted that Canadians were fighting “a battle for the middle class” and that Trudeau would “cave to corporate greed.” Singh also expressed concerns about the possibility of the Conservative party getting into office. 

A national survey conducted in August by Abacus Data reported that the Conservatives are formidable opposition to both the NDP and the Liberals. The data states that if the election were held today, “42 per cent of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 25 per cent would vote for the Liberals, 18 per cent for the NDP, and 5 per cent for the Greens. The BQ continues to hold 30 per cent in Quebec.”

With their agreement ending, there was a possibility of an early election this fall. While Singh’s announcement did not immediately cause an election, it led to a confidence vote on the subject. Poilievre requested that Singh support his non-confidence motion, saying “It's put up or shut up time for the NDP,” according to CTV News. 

If the Bloc Québécois were also supportive of the motion, an election could very well have been imminent for Canadian voters. This may have benefited the Conservatives, as their lead in polls could have brought their party a quick electoral victory. 

However, both Polievre's non-confidence motions were tabled. He put forward two in the same week, attempting to shore up support from the Bloc and NDP. According to CTV News, the second and most recent non-confidence motion, which took place Oct. 1,  stated that “the House has lost confidence in the government and offers Canadians the option to axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime.” Despite terminating their agreement with the Liberals, the NDP voted against the motion, and it was defeated 207 to 121.

The Bloc also voted against Polievre’s election-triggering motions, which the Conservatives called “letting down Quebecers.” The NDP’s lack of cooperation garnered similar criticism from the Conservatives, as they alleged Jagmeet Singh “sold out working Canadians.”

With neither party wavering on their current positions, a successful non-confidence motion does not look imminent. However, the federal government remains increasingly unstable, and the Conservatives will have more opportunities to call for confidence votes before parliament adjourns before Christmas.