Predicted Playoff Rejects to Stanley Cup Contenders
Photo Credit: Bob Frid/USA Today
After a disappointing 2022–23 season and the removal of head coach Bruce Boudreau, the Canucks were in an unpredictable position going into the 2023–24 regular season. Last year, the Canucks had one of their worst starts, and only after new head coach Rick Tocchet replaced Bruce Boudreau did they begin to improve. However, by the time the change was made, they were already out of playoff contention and were tanking their draft position. The team ended the season at 38–37–7 (83 points), finishing sixth in the Pacific Division. This year, many did not have high hopes for the Canucks, with the Athletic projecting the Canucks with a 50 per cent chance of making the playoffs, and most thought a finish similar to last season’s was likely.
High expectations were set on stars like Elias Petterson to secure points after finishing top 10 in points last season, with 102. Quinn Hughes was also predicted to be a major player for the Canucks as one of the best offensive goal-scoring defensemen in the league. Hughes, ranked in the top 10 defencemen in the league by Net Rating, was appointed captain of the Canucks for this year’s season and was set to be a leader for the team. No one could’ve predicted how well the Canucks would play in the 2023–24 season, with a brand new captain and a mediocre previous season and reputation. But, as of Feb. 17, they have not only secured a spot in the playoffs but are being discussed as Stanley Cup contenders.
According to The Athletic, the Canucks only had a 1 per cent chance of winning the Stanley Cup during the pre-season predictions, and they started the season at +5000 odds of winning the Stanley Cup. As of Feb. 17, Vancouver was sitting at +900 odds (tied for second with the Dallas Stars, behind the Boston Bruins) of winning the Cup. The Canucks are currently at 38–17–7 (83 points), as of Mar. 2, and are first in the Pacific Division and fourth in the league. The team has already overtaken the amount of points and have tied the amount of wins they had in the whole of the 2022–23 season. Since the NHL regular season is just over three-quarters done, the Canucks have defied negative predictions and odds in an unprecedented manner.
The success of the Canucks can be partially attributed to their new captain, Quinn Hughes. He replaced previous captain Bo Horvat for the 2023–24 season, after Horvat’s trade at the previous trade deadline, and has been proclaimed the best defenceman the Canucks have ever had. As the top-scoring defenseman in the NHL as of Mar. 2, the first player in the league to cross the 30-point mark in the 2023–24 regular season, and on course to hit the 100-point mark, he can be directly credited for the Canucks’ success during this season. His determination and dedication to the team can be seen in how he’s grown into his role as a leader and captain of the team, according to Sportsnet.
Another reason for the Canucks’ successful season is their third line. Many talk about the Lotto Line as the Canucks’ star players, but the Dakota Joshua, Teddy Blueger, and Conor Garland line has been an unexpected high point. The Canucks have always had their top six figured out with the Lotto Line, and with players like Sam Lafferty, Nils Åman, and Pius Suter, they had their energy savers covered as well. The Canucks have historically struggled with their third line, but with Tocchet’s development of the Joshua-Blueger-Garland unit, they have a consistent third line of players. When the Canucks struggled with inconsistency, especially in the Lotto Line, the third line proved to be secure, creating scoring opportunities, winning matchups and getting pucks deep. According to Natural Stat Trick, Blueger, Joshua and Garland have been in the top five in shot-share percentage and expected goals for five-for-five matchups. This success is noted amid the inconsistencies of the Canucks Lotto Line.
Named after Lotto 6/49, players Brock Boeser (#6), Elias Pettersson (#40), and J.T. Miller (#9), are part of the Canucks’ top line. This year, they have struggled to contribute much to the Canucks’ lead, though all three players are some of the best players on the team. Even though the team was winning games when the Lotto Line was in play, Boeser, Pettersson and Miller have not been playing to their full potential. That’s not to discount the players on this line. Both forwards J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson are predicted to also hit the 100-point mark — a first in Canucks history. Boeser is also on track to hit 50 goals — one of three Canucks in history to hit this goal.
With the recent acquisition of Elias Lindholm, the Canucks are trying to support their top line now that they have found consistency with their bottom line. Lindholm, who was previously a center for the Calgary Flames, made his debut against the Carolina Hurricanes, scoring two goals in a 3–2 win for the Canucks. “[Lindholm] can play anywhere—great shot, great hockey sense, his reads are really good,” said Hughes on Lindholm in an interview with The Athletic. The new energy to the top line is what’s needed to help the Canucks become a more well-rounded, consistent team.
Thatcher Demko, fresh off an injury that took him out of the majority of the 2022–23 season, is on track to be a Vezina finalist, a trophy awarded to the best goaltender of the season. With one of the best save percentages in the league and with a 67 per cent win rate in his 46 games so far, he has proven to be one of Vancouver’s best goalies. Having a strong goalie is key to the Canucks’ success, and a consistent goalie like Demko supports all the other players on the ice.
The biggest factor for the Canucks’ success this season is head coach Rick Tocchet. Tocchet’s goal was to bring the struggling Canucks to success, and he’s done just that. Tocchet has a 58–29–11 record since joining the Canucks and has brought Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser out of their slumps from the 2022–23 season. Something positive can also be said about management when six Canucks were brought into the Toronto All-Star game, an unprecedented amount of players being nominated. Tocchet has been a foundational pillar of support for the team and has been the biggest reason the Canucks have found success this year, especially with his work developing the Joshua-Blueger-Garland line and inspiring Hughes to reach his potential as a leader.
With the recent injury of Dakota Joshua and the top line still needing to live up to their potential, there will need to be some adjustments made to the Canucks’ team to thrive in the playoffs and truly contend against the big names for the Stanley Cup. If the Canucks’ key players stay uninjured for the rest of the season and the team continues to grow in their offensive power, the Canucks will still be in contention to win the Cup.