OPINION | Should Trudeau Run in the Next Election?

Photo Credit: Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

It’s a question gripping many political pundits: should he stay or should he go? 

How do the latest happenings in the Ottawa bubble affect high school students? The question is simple: do you want a PM who refuses to support trans youth? Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sure doesn’t and neither do I. Trudeau immediately called out Poilievre’s backing of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s plan to ban gender-affirming surgeries on minors and limit teenagers’ ability to change their pronouns at school. 

Still, Trudeau is willing to gracefully hand over the country, tied up nicely in a bow, to a leader as divisive as Pierre Poilievre. The prime minister is choosing to take his party down the losing path solely because he says he “could not be the man I am” without staying on as party leader.

aThe polls are clear: if Trudeau leads the party through the next election, he’ll cause an immense Liberal defeat. Instead, the prime minister should serve all Canadians — and not his personal ideals — by quietly stepping aside and helping avert the dangers of a Poilievre government.

The Conservatives are enjoying their largest lead in the polls since Trudeau became Liberal leader, according to the most recent numbers from Abacus Data. The firm's most recent survey shows the Conservative Party taking a 20-point lead over the Liberals, capturing 44 per cent of the popular vote. The Liberal Party, with 24 per cent of the popular vote, is projected to lead the NDP by just seven percentage points. 

Data from poll aggregator 338Canada points to a similar outcome. Using the latest vote intention statistics, 338Canada runs thousands of election simulations. Over 99 per cent of outcomes see the Conservatives forming government. The odds are bleak for Trudeau’s Liberals; if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would lose more than half of their 156 seats. 

A second Trump presidency — a major variable in such forecasts — has some analysts predicting voters will flee to the Liberals following a Trump win in 2024 — a possibility that seems distant according to recent polling from Abacus. Forty-three per cent of voters feel Poilievre is best suited to handle Trump, while just 26 per cent say Trudeau — who dealt with Trump for four years — would be best suited.

All the numbers point in the same direction: Trudeau’s popularity has reached a point of no-return. Seventy-two per cent of Canadians think Trudeau should resign in 2024, according to a November 2023 Ipsos poll. Poilievre also maintains higher net approval ratings — the difference between the approval and disapproval rates of a candidate — than the prime minister, at +5 per cent to -33 per cent, respectively.

Despite the government’s attempts to sway Canadians with programs designed to address cost-of-living concerns, the Liberals won’t see meaningful changes in polling numbers until the party gets a new leader.

Before Abacus began its most recent poll on Apr. 3, Apr. 1 saw the government announce a new social program worth $1 billion. Trudeau unveiled the National School Food Program, which aims to provide meals to 400,000 students across the country. Eighty-one per cent of Canadians support the move, including 66 per cent of voters who “dislike Trudeau”. 

While the policy’s significance pales in comparison to the carbon tax, housing, and inflation — all issues that the Conservatives have pinned directly on Trudeau — the numbers show that Canadians still have an incredible appetite for progressive policies, despite only 25 per cent supporting the Liberal Party, Canada’s largest left-of-centre option. 

Why the discrepancy? Canadians support the Liberal Party’s policy, but are fed up with its leader.

An Abacus poll conducted Nov. 23–28 found that 18 per cent of Canadians would be more likely to vote Liberal if the party ditched Trudeau. Four per cent of those voters would strongly consider voting Liberal.

Abacus measured that, when vote intention is adjusted to a scenario where Trudeau steps down, the Conservatives lose nearly half of their lead — meaning that a major loss of Liberal seats can be prevented.

But these numbers don't account for how a new Liberal leader would attract additional voters. The survey investigated how Trudeau's resignation would affect vote intention. It didn’t assess how Canadians would cast their ballots if given the chance to vote in Canada’s first female prime minister elected by the general public, Chrystia Freeland. As leader, the Deputy Prime Minister would bring a new energy to the Liberal party that is currently lacking. 

This gap is especially pertinent since both Freeland and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have higher popularity than Trudeau, according to Nanos Research.

The Liberals have 18 months before Canadians must return to the polls. With inflation trending downwards, expected interest rate cuts in the months to come, and $19 billion in new funding on its way to address the housing crisis, closing the remaining gap — ten percentage points at the very most — will be much easier for a new Liberal leader. 

When the state of the country improves, voters will switch allegiance. In a November poll, Abacus found that 33 per cent of non-Liberal voters are more likely to vote for the party if interest rates on their mortgages drop. 

The 12 per cent of voters who were more likely to consider voting Liberal without Trudeau at the party’s helm — but who weren’t accounted for in Abacus’ calculation because they weren’t much more likely to consider switching parties at the time of the poll — will now be more inclined to vote Liberal as the national mood improves under a new party leader. 

But wouldn’t a similar effect benefit Trudeau if he were leader? It would, if voters cast their ballots based purely off government policy and the economic state of the country. Many Canadians, though, are tired of Trudeau simply because he’s been around so long — they’re unhappy with the PM not because of specific policy issues, but rather due to a general distaste.

Fifty-nine per cent of Canadians with a negative impression of Trudeau say that they are simply “tired” of Justin Trudeau, according to Abacus. These feelings aren’t a judgment of Trudeau’s performance based on voters' current dissatisfaction with the government and the impacts of its policies; rather, the number reflects a genuine fatigue that will only worsen in the 18 months that remain in Trudeau’s term, despite Liberal attempts to regain support.

But, for the sake of the argument, suppose Trudeau’s popularity does make a modest recovery as inflation eases. Pierre Poilievre can still remind voters of the misery that gave his party a 20-point lead in the polls. He can remind voters of what some view as the government’s latent response to the cost-of-living and housing crises, and point to how Trudeau’s Liberals can’t be trusted to handle the economy for another four years. 

If a party outsider were to take the reins, such as Carney, they wouldn’t have to bear the burden — and resulting vote losses — of being held accountable for apparent mistakes the government made years ago. 

As Toronto Star columnist Mark Bulgutch puts it, “Poilievre blames Trudeau personally for every twitch, every nuisance, every ache, every bother, on every centimetre of Canada’s 9.9 million square kilometres, including all its lakes and rivers, and another 200,000 square kilometres of territorial waters offshore.”

A new leader wouldn’t have the baggage that comes with governing for 10 years — including voters’ dismal assessment of Trudeau’s handling of the economy.

With Canada’s reputation as a compassionate, caring, and non-polarized democracy on the line, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must put his ego aside and choose the right path for the Liberal Party and all Canadians.