Analysis | Chinese-Taiwan relations post Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Ann Wang/Reuters via the Globe and Mail

On the 24th of February, Russia instigated its invasion of Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine dynamic is often compared to the China-Taiwan relationship, and not without reason. On the surface, both look quite similar, with a larger country seeking to take back control of a part of a former unified country. For Russia, their motivation to invade came from their fear of a western leaning Ukraine. However China and Taiwan’s situation is more complex.

While Ukraine is widely recognized as a sovereign state, only about 15 countries that officially recognize Taiwan, also known as the Republic of China (ROC); with none of the major western powers formally acknowledging its existence. China, or the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC), under their One China Principle, want Taiwan, Tibet and Hong Kong, and the mainland to be part of one, united China with the PRC in control. With the Russian ideology of uniting the former Soviet Union mirroring the dynamic between China and Taiwan, the world has begun to watch how the conflict may affect the relationship between The People’s Republic of China and Taiwan.

Taiwan might see itself as a sovereign country, with its own central government, passports, constitution, and its residents identifying as Taiwanese, but the PRC, and the ‘rest of the world’ doesn’t officially see it this way, at least not openly. Many countries have trade relationships with Taiwan, including the United States, who have even established an “American Institute in Taiwan”, which is similar to an embassy. Despite this countries cannot fully admit Taiwan’s existence due to China’s strong economic ties.

Originally, Taiwan was a part of China, but in 1895 it was lost to Japan in the first Sino-Japanese war. It wasn’t until the aftermath of World War Two that China would regain control of Taiwan, when the territory was ceded back to China by Japan. However, things remained conflicted. Following the Chinese Civil War, the ruling party at the time, the Kuomintang (KMT) was ousted from the mainland, taking residence on Taiwan. This led to a democratic Taiwan developing independently from the PRC’s Communist China, leaving China fractured. After that, a period of stasis was achieved when both areas developed along their own lines until the early 1990s.

However, in the 1990s, China and Taiwan made efforts to improve cross-strait relations. In 1992, Taiwan and China created a consensus, later called the 1992 Consensus, which would form the basis for modern relations between China and Taiwan. However, neither side can agree on the interpretation of the agreement. China viewed it as an agreement to reunify both sides; part of the “one country, two systems” philosophy. Taiwan viewed it as a commitment to one China, with Taiwan as the true seat of power in China.

However, the Consensus has started to represent the change within Taiwan’s politics. The KMT, the original ruling party of Taiwan, who support the Consensus, and are seen as more “pro-China” were defeated in both recent elections. The party that beat them, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) strongly favours Taiwanese independence and identity. They also have firmly stated that they never agreed to the Consensus, which has pushed Taiwan further away from China. China has only helped the separation, with policies targeted to harm Taiwan.

With the crackdown on rights in Hong Kong as well, Taiwan has continued to separate itself from China. Still, despite Taiwan’s growing independence, China has strong-armed much of the world from acknowledging Taiwan as anything more than a breakaway province.

Currently, Taiwan is in a far more precarious situation than ever. Despite their US supplied army, China’s threat is ever present. While the scenes of citizens defending their cities in Ukraine have bolstered efforts to prepare for a Chinese invasion in Taiwan, both Taiwan and China have learned important lessons from Russia’s invasion. The most important amongst these being that a country’s allies might supply them, but they won’t fight for them. While western powers supplied Ukraine, and imposed sanctions on Russia, they weren’t willing to engage Russia in outright combat.

This idea has only continued to worry Taiwan, and their 169,000 active military personnel, who are vastly outnumbered by China’s strength of over 2 million military personnel. Without military support, Taiwan would need to mobilize its civilian population to even have a chance if China did invade. Taiwan is not blind to this, releasing its first ever civil defense handbook, in the advent of a Chinese invasion. The book prepares the Taiwanese public on how to react to a possible military crisis, the government making the possibility ever more clear.

Although China may be waiting for the outcome of the Russia’s invasion, Taiwan is far from the same position as Ukraine. Not only is the world far more dependent on China than Russia, meaning sanctions may hurt the world just as it would hurt China, but Taiwan lacks the support on the global stage that Ukraine has. Even the United States, one of Taiwan’s closest allies, may not outright support Taiwan in the event of an invasion.

While China’s strategy on Taiwan may not have changed as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, they now have a far better understanding on how the world reacts to such an event. The invasion may prove to be the tipping point for China-Taiwan relations, however the effects might not be seen for a while. At the very least, Russia’s invasion is a learning experience for Taiwan and China, both on how to invade a country and the political ramifications.

The most important factor in the invasion of Ukraine is how it will end. This ultimately might have the largest effect on China’s future with Taiwan, as it will show truly the commitment the rest of the world has to peace. If there is one thing that the rest of the world should have learned from Russia’s invasion, it is that these events can happen.

However, an invasion of Taiwan would mean just as much for the world as it would mean for Taiwan. Not only is Taiwan a critical supplier of semiconductors, an item that is in short supply, but an invasion of another prominent sovereign country would set a dangerous precedent for the world. Russia’s invasion has only shown the world how little control it has over bad actors on the global stage. Should China decide to move on Taiwan, it could mean a dark era for global peace.